Crash Game Algorithm: Understanding the Formula and Variables

Crash is a popular crypto casino game known for its dynamic gameplay and the potential for large payouts. Every day, it pulls in tens of thousands of players across Crash casinos. Many players, though, struggle with tactics due to a poor understanding of how the game works. We aim to resolve these issues by exploring the math behind Crash.

Crash Game Mechanics

If this topic catches your interest, you probably know about Ethereum Crash gambling mechanics. For newcomers, here’s the basics: you watch a rocket or similar object go up. As it does, the win multiplier increases. You can claim your win anytime, and your bet multiplies by the displayed value. But if you wait too long, the round ends and you get nothing.

While the game appears simple, it is actually run by underlying algorithms that choose when to stop the round. Luckily, many casinos make their Crash game code public. By examining this code, we can learn how the game functions and why winning consistently is not possible.

Hash, Seed, and Crash Point

The game's outcome is based on a hash — an encrypted string that, when plugged into a formula, determines the game's ending multiplier. This is part of the provable fairness system, often highlighted as a key advantage of Crash.

After the round, you receive the hash in its decrypted form. You can insert it into the formula to get the same maximum multiplier from the round, or re-encrypt it to check if it matches the original encrypted hash used in the game. However, decrypting the hash by yourself before the round ends is nearly impossible. The game's algorithms are similar to Bitcoin's, meaning you'd need as much computing power as it would take to crack Bitcoin.

In addition, the game often includes another variable, the seed, set by the players and included in the outcome formula. The seed is important because it is independent of the casino, providing another assurance of the game's fairness. You can choose any seed, and it genuinely influences the outcome, but nobody knows how it will interact with the current hash.

Calculating Results in Crash

Now, let's calculate the Crash results using our existing data. We'll start with the decrypted hash and seed from a previous round that ended with a 6.56x multiplier. By entering these into the casino's fairness tool with the embedded formula, we verify that the same hash and seed produce a 6.56x multiplier. Additionally, using SHA256 encryption tools on the hash shows us the same encrypted hash from that round. More details are available in the Spaceman strategy.

However, this tool alone isn't sufficient for a deep dive into Crash's math. By applying the game's formula, we can track the hash of each previous round back to the very first one. As we do this, we'll also check that the calculated results align with the actual game outcomes.

Crash Odds

Our study involves a game with a return-to-player (RTP) of 97%, typical for Crash. This setup means that 3 out of every 100 rounds will end at 1.00x, where all players lose. Conversely, players have a chance to profit during the other 97 rounds.

By applying the formula, we can predict profits and winning probabilities. Take the 2x multiplier: 52% of rounds end below it, consistent with real data. The 10x multiplier occurs less frequently, missing 90.4% of the time. Similar patterns hold for other multipliers.

We can now figure out the expected return from betting on different multipliers. For instance, if we bet one dollar on a 2x multiplier, we are expected to lose about three and a half cents per round on average. Betting on a lower multiplier, like 1.05x, reduces the loss to $0.0307 per round. This trend follows the general rule in Crash games that RTP decreases as the multiplier goes up.

Let's put these findings on a graph. The blue line shows the theoretical results, and the yellow line shows the actual results. They line up as the multiplier rises. For multipliers up to 10x, the expected loss ranges from 3 to 4 cents.

Strategy Tips

Based on this data, we can draw some important conclusions for playing Crash. For example, relying on the Martingale system isn’t a surefire win strategy. If you start with $2, by the tenth round, you could be betting over $1000. The likelihood of reaching this point is very low, yet it remains a possibility.

The biggest issue isn't our finite bankroll, but rather that many Crash games have a maximum bet limit. Using the Martingale system, eventually, we won't be able to make the bet we need. Even if we could continue betting, any profit would only equal the initial bet, here $2. While the Martingale system increases the chances of winning small amounts, it also risks losing big, ultimately resulting in a negative expected value.

Our findings show that the smallest losses come from betting on the minimum multiplier. But, this contradicts Crash winning strategies where math doesn’t always align with common sense. Winning on lower multipliers still leads to occasional losses, and the payouts are usually too small to ensure overall profit. Therefore, it's generally recommended to target multipliers of at least 1.5x for a more effective playing style.

FAQ

No single method can overcome the casino's long-term edge in Crash, but cashing out at moderate multipliers does enhance your chances statistically.

It starts with a random hash and calculates a round-ending multiplier using a specific formula within its algorithm.

To find the likelihood of a certain multiplier, divide 1 by the multiplier and adjust for the RTP. For example, with a 20x multiplier and a 97% RTP, the calculation would be (1 / 20) x 0.97 = 4.85%.